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From the NYT: “The torrential wave of data center construction for artificial intelligence has seemed unstoppable. Unconstrained by interest rates or labor costs, the biggest tech companies in the world are pouring trillions of dollars into land, electronics and new power plants. A.I. spending is now a meaningful share of American economic growth and the wind at the stock market’s back.
“But lately, zoning commissions and county councils across the country have been resisting. Unnerved by the data centers’ voracious electricity demands and sprawling footprints, they are denying permits and withdrawing tax breaks at a rate that is forcing companies like Google, Microsoft and Meta to take a different tack.
“And Wall Street, which has ridden high on those valuations, is starting to raise some eyebrows.”
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Non Dolet
by Oliver St. John Gogarty (1878-1957)
Our friends go with us as we go
Down the long path where Beauty wends,
Where all we love forgathers, so
Why should we fear to join our friends?
Who would survive them to outlast
His children; to outwear his fame—
Left when the Triumph has gone past—
To win from Age, not Time, a name?
Then do not shudder at the knife
That Death’s indifferent hand drives home,
But with the Strivers leave the Strife,
Nor, after Caesar, skulk in Rome.
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From Axios: “Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and “we don’t want to be fooled again,” according to a source with direct knowledge of those discussions. …
“Iranian officials have told the mediators — Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey — that U.S. military movements and Trump’s decision to deploy major troop reinforcements have increased their suspicion that his proposal for peace talks is just a ruse.”
Assuming that talks are taking place (or will shortly), which is more likely, that Tehran will give in to Trump’s demands for stopping the attacks or that Trump will give in to Tehran’s demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
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A Song
by Laurence Binyon (1869-1943)
For Mercy, Courage, Kindness, Mirth,
There is no measure upon earth.
Nay, they wither, root and stem,
If an end be set to them,
Overbrim and overflow,
If your own heart you would know;
For the spirit born to bless
Lives but in its own excess.
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From the NYT: “A federal judge ruled on Friday that the Pentagon’s restrictions on news outlets violate the First Amendment and issued an order tossing parts of the Defense Department’s policy, handing a victory to The New York Times, which filed suit in December over the restrictions.
“Judge Paul Friedman, of U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, also ordered the Pentagon to restore the press passes of seven journalists for The Times. They had surrendered those passes in October instead of signing the policy, which empowered the Pentagon to declare journalists “security risks” and revoke their press passes if they engaged in any conduct that the Pentagon believed threatened national security.”
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[I began the following post several years ago when Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and never got around to finishing it. Given what’s happened in the past few days, I’ve decided to publish it now as is with a few remarks. As I said, Iran is a deeply divided country. It remains so. I called it a powder keg that could explode at any time. We set the match to it. We have not effected regime change (and are unlikely to do so without “boots on the ground”). What we have likely done is trigger a civil war between the regime and its opponents. Which side, alas, controls the military and the security apparatus and has most of the guns? Thousands more of those we support will die as they are branded traitors and many on the fence “rally around the flag.” This may have been inevitable but we needn’t have been the trigger.]
Back in December 2000, I spent about a week and a half in Tehran (covering the FIDE version of the world chess championship for AP). This was during the administration of President Khatami, a pro-Western reformer. I talked with a number of people and they were uniformly pro-Western and optimistic about the future.* I heard not a single anti-American word (unless you count one person’s puzzlement at how someone could “lose” the election and still be elected–“that’s not democratic, is it?”). They saw change on the horizon and a thawing of relations with the West. Of course it didn’t happen. Iran was (and is) a deeply divided country and the people I talked to were a small, unrepresentative sample (being mostly young and all English speaking except for one conversation in broken French).
In hindsight, it seems obvious that Khatami went as far toward accommodating the West as he could within the relatively closed nature of Iran’s political system (still more open than most in the West give it credit for), i.e., within Iran’s Overton window, only to be rebuffed by both the Clinton and Bush administrations for not going far enough. Since he had nothing to show for his efforts, he was naturally voted out in favor of the hardliner Ahmadinejad, who did nothing to heal Iran’s division. After a disputed election in 2009, the moderates regained the presidency with the election of Rouhani in 2013.
A look at Iran’s demographics reveals a ticking time bomb. Exactly the opposite problem from that faced by the advanced democracies, who have an aging, shrinking population. Iran has a booming, young population and Iran’s stagnant economy can’t absorb them all into the labor force. It’s a powder keg and if it goes off, the effects will not be confined within Iran’s borders. Supreme Leader is a nice title but Ayatollah Khamenei can’t feel very comfortable or very supreme contemplating all of this.
Under the circumstances, it seems likely that the main goal of “Obama’s nuclear deal” was simply to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. It strengthened the moderates by giving them something (sanctions relief and presumably an improved economy) to show for their moderation at the expense of the hardliners. While not perfect, it seems to be the best deal attainable (i.e., that the hardliners couldn’t block).
With these considerations in mind, I have to ask: who in Iran benefits from Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and who in Iran is harmed? The answer seems obvious: the hardliners benefit at the expense of the moderates. The sanctions “only benefit the Revolutionary Guards.” The get to boast of their nationalistic patriotism and crow that they were right when they said that the West is not to be trusted.
* Of course, my sample was both small (maybe 12-15) and skewed towards those who spoke English and would engage an American in conversation. Almost all were under 30. I did not encounter any hardliners. I take my experience, not as a representative sample, but as perhaps representative of the pro-Khatami reformers. If nothing else, it proved the existence of those who genuinely wanted an opening to the West and were pro-Western in outlook.
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